Is Israel Gearing Up for War? IDF Warns of Iran’s Missile Surge

Tehran ramps up ballistic production post-12-day conflict, as nuclear tensions and U.S. diplomacy hang in the balance amid fears of regime-toppling strikes

Israel continues to bolster its defenses amid escalating tensions with Iran, as recent intelligence reveals Tehran’s aggressive rebuilding of ballistic missile stockpiles following the June 2025 12-day war. IDF officials have warned lawmakers of Iran’s capacity to launch overwhelming attacks, potentially involving thousands of missiles, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. This standoff, fueled by nuclear ambitions and proxy warfare, risks drawing in the United States despite President Trump’s diplomatic overtures.​

IDF Briefings and Military Readiness

In a closed-door Knesset session, senior IDF representatives detailed Iran’s 24/7 missile factory operations, aiming to surpass previous barrages that strained Israeli defenses during the 12-day war. Israeli assessments indicate Tehran has relocated enriched uranium stocks and is constructing fortified underground sites like “Pickaxe Mountain” south of Natanz, inaccessible to IAEA inspectors. The military emphasized ongoing surveillance of Iranian nuclear and defense infrastructure, with contingency plans for preemptive strikes if threats materialize.​

The June 2025 12-Day War Revisited

The conflict began on June 13, 2025, when Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, targeting key Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production lines, and command structures in a bid to cripple Tehran’s capabilities. Iran responded with salvos of over 500 ballistic missiles across 12 days, overwhelming air defenses and causing significant damage in Israeli cities, though U.S.-assisted interceptions mitigated worse outcomes. The war ended via a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on June 24, but it exposed vulnerabilities: Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, launched supporting attacks, while U.S. airstrikes hit Natanz, leaving visible craters confirmed by satellite imagery.​

Iran’s Nuclear and Proxy Strategies

Tehran views its nuclear program and missile arsenal as non-negotiable pillars of sovereignty and deterrence, rejecting concessions despite international sanctions post the 2015 JCPOA collapse. Iran’s “axis of resistance”—weakened by Syrian regime changes and war losses—still leverages Shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Ansar Allah in Yemen for asymmetric pressure on Israel. Experts from the International Crisis Group note missile factories now target 2,000 simultaneous launches to saturate defenses, far exceeding June’s 500-missile volleys.​

U.S. Role and Trump’s Balancing Act

President Trump, reelected in 2024, has publicly confirmed U.S. participation in strikes on Iranian targets while floating a vague “new deal” to avert escalation, meeting Saudi leaders to gauge regional support. Iranian advisors like Kamal Kharrazi insist on mutual respect for talks, prioritizing nuclear dialogue but excluding missiles. Gulf states, per New York Times reporting, brace for inevitable Israeli action, viewing Iran’s program as an existential risk that could destabilize the entire region.​

Regional Implications and Expert Warnings

Gulf monarchies and analysts predict a “when, not if” scenario for renewed strikes, as Israel’s security establishment floats long-term options like regime change in Iran before 2029. Iran’s President Pezeshkian calls for dialogue without capitulation, while vowing retaliation that could “take Israel down” in total war. With U.S. domestic challenges and global hotspots like Ukraine straining resources, Washington faces pressure to either restrain Israel or risk entanglement, potentially reshaping Middle East geopolitics.​